Recovery in a few years a dream!

We won't see the first part of a recovery for  6 years perhaps 7 and here is why.  The President of France has asked the EU to give up on the Russian Embargo which would do nothing at this point in time! He was rejected. Countries are playing down the Embargo and are more or less blaming the oil and LNG problem on fairies. Putin hooped them!

 Here is a link to what we could have been.

Oil suppliers around the world are leasing tankers for 1 to 2 years to store oil they can't sell with options to lengthen.  They are also saying times are better than 08 as there are more tankers available!

This stored oil will have to be used up before any new production can make it into the pipes. I'm saying 5 years for any improvements and 6 or 7 years before there is storage for new oil output. But; the world is set perfectly for a #protracted war.   Only a catastrophic failure like a war starting in the middle east and escalating though the Crimea and the world can change this scenario and, for the worse. Our young people as cannon fodder again.  

Recent propaganda pictures of Putin talking nuclear strike alternatives with his henchmen is at this point saber rattling.

Alberta's oil is being shipped by rail to the US where it goes into storage in Cushing Ill. Storage is expensive and limited.  The oil pipelines from Cushing to Texas Gulf are hitting their own problems it will be years before there is one; if then.

The US cannot refuse Canadian oil but it is all mixed in with market capacity in the US.  Obama signed a deal with Mexico to allow them to ship to the Gulf Refinery.  Obama has a surplus of oil coming out of shale that wasn't there before.   #Both these large items reduce the amount of oil they have to take from Canada!  Obama is hooping the Republicans who incidentally did the same thing to him.   

The Bakken Shale oil  is very high in High Vapor Base apparently.  This is the stuff that gasoline is made of.  Static build up in transit can cause ignition when exposed to enough air.  You either use to to make Gasoline or you reinject it back into the strata.  If you choose the latter it will turn out like Norman Wells, NWT where so much #condensate was injected back that it started to show up as an increasing high content at the wellhead meaning more cost and time to get it out of the oil so they can make P30;40 50 and jet fuel.  Point is it does not come out of a separate spout it is part of the crude!  US oil lies when it says they have in any way increased the flash point of their crude!  I see room for lawsuits here!

It is so rich in HVB which is very volatile the cars were self igniting causing ruling they had to reduce the amount of condensate in the crude.  Mini Refineries at wellhead?    They did this but still have had 3 fiery crashes which means they have to cut back more if they are serious about prevention.    This puts a glut of condensate in the US who now, for the first time ever have given permission to export condensate from the US.  Worthwhile to note our Tar Sands needs Condensate to enrich the crude.

#Prentice (Alberta) tells us here on the 18th there will be 3 years before any oil norms are reached!  That is Impossible and still another lie!  I'm saying the #oil will still be in those tankers at least  4 years down the road and that will have to be used before they can tap into new production. I'm saying up to 7 years before there is an improvement and predicting thousands laid off in the meantime.  As of now we have lost all of our markets! 

Consumer buying power in the west will be drastically reduced further dampening the world economy.  This is a bad time to be over financed on dream homes and boy's toy's! 

Obama has helped his people by guaranteeing companies in the shale production a working price on their oil.  Alberta can't do that; they blew it all; giving it away to oil!  We have nothing to face except higher taxes.

Prentice is jigging to get himself past the spring election as is Harper and this pipeline will give them another shot at the ring where there is nothing in their futures now.

#Harper and Kenny's bizarre immigration plan to legalize American oil patch illegals does nothing better than compound the problems faced by Alberta and all provinces! The criminal element they brought in with their stand on no vetting; no background checks is coming back to bite us. No matter which way you look at it Conservatives have made it worse.  Vancouver BC is now reporting Mexican Cartel gangs running the dope.  We never had that before!

In 2008 the Americans purchased the surplus oil in the tankers shortening considerably the drought. Not so this time, the Americans have their own shale oil they are topping up their storage!

As for #Saudi being the bad guys? It is simply not so! 

At the heart of it all is the West embargo on Russia who immediately responded with Gazprom inking a long term cheap oil and LNG deals with China. China to this point was the sacred market of the west including BC. I say cheap and long term because *China responded by saying their LNG plants (5 of them) in Indonesia are not making money enough so put them all up for sale! China's CNOOC Ltd is now declaring large losses on their petroleum.

The #Chinese operating company of these LNG (China's CNOOC Ltd) plants started their own price cutting scheme about the same time Gazprom declared an increase in output and opened up exports increasing them in Indonesia, China and Russia. All this is #Saudi turf; what would you have them do? 

It is Putin who hooped our diplomats and took our markets; not the Saudi. I see #Merkel's hand on all of it.

The US limited Saudi input into the Gulf refinery hurting them further. This, while Obama inked a deal with Mexico to import their heavy crude into the Gulf Refinery and haul away Condensates to upgrade their crude in their own country. 

Perhaps Obama is playing the long game; looking 7 years down the road and wants a place to put the US oil?

This put the cold wash on the Keystone pipeline. At best; a world of uncertainty. In case you missed it; all of our existing markets have gone!  #Stopping the embargo on Russia is not going to change anything now. Its in the works for years to come.

Japan (Christies(BC) big dream) who the petroleum people looked upon as a gold mine asked Obama if they could get in on the 3.00 LNG market north America. He said no. Christie in BC's get rich fast deal went down the tubes. A new Government in Japan! Immediately 3 nuclear plants re-commissioned with notice they will build 6 more state of the art plants within the next two years. 

The Conservatives in Alberta have been lying for years. They have pulled trillions of dollars yes, Trillions out of Alberta's economy and tucked it into the oil pockets. 

Quick list:

Heritage trust frozen at 5% everything else went into General Revenues as taxes.. Loss to Alberta  over 700 billion dollars.

They discounted our oil by 30% going into any deal. Trillions lost there over the years. 

We collect zero for royalty and have not collected any for several years. Multi millions lost there. 

Flat tax: middle class pay the bulk of the taxes; industry gets a free ride.  This is money taken off your table.

I don't want to loose my home; my pensions. I will be supporting the Federal Liberals and the Alberta NDP who will put in a variable tax like the rest of Canada has. The 10% tax in place makes the middle and low income pay the lion's share of the taxes while oil floats free. The Alberta Liberals take the same position.  A link to their platform and history  

Other choices?  None realistically.  The Alberta Party was invented by the oil companies not to win anything, but to split the vote on the left because they haven't gone anywhere to date they probably don't get the bills paid for by oil.  

No my friends, there is no up side!

Other Ministers have been busy too.  Cardinal sold or leased all the crown free grazing lands on the east slope of the Rockies to the Agra Food Industry (Nestle?)  That is where all our water aquifers start!  First in line, first in time for settling water disputes.

When an oil company #asked for a bucket of water they were given a swimming pool!  In this way the Conservatives used up all the water allotments.  On one side these allotments can be sold; Is this the end of Provincial ownership?  On the other end oil companies can claim they used only a small portion of their allotments when challenged on their use of the water.

Brooks ran short of water because of their allotment numbers not because there was no water available.  They #paid an oil company 1 million dollars for a portion of their water allotments who in turn claim they gave it to an unnamed charity.  A second allotment was bought from an Conservative insider for an undisclosed amount.

The St. Mary's water agreement was/is under pressure.  The Americans figure now they were hooped when they gave that amount of water off the St. Mary's Glacier to Canada.

Cardinal worked his crooked magic.  The #Water Association for St. Mary's was overhauled.  If a person did not have property on the St. Mary's aquifer they were removed from any membership.  Only people who were actually on the aquifer could vote.  Rock piles that were on the aquifer but not leased or owned were quickly sold to insiders it is all about the privatization of water in Alberta and Canada.

It is a good time to mention #Harper has three times refused to acknowledge water as a human right in Canada!  It brings to mind a photo I seen about a Bechtel water operation in I think Africa.  Only blacks in the picture carrying tin petro buckets on their heads and a person being refused water because he didn't have 5 cents to pay for a bucket full.

Harper has turned loose hundreds of #water export permits from Canada. The Royal Bank holds a lot of them.

#Electricity:

When Klein "privatized" Electricity he invented Power Purchase Agreement.  A generator could not own transmission was at the crux of it so the generation from each plant was sold as a PPA public bids were asked for, no names of who bid or what was bid were ever released.  Big buck insiders reported as the participants.  Reports of the PPA's being flipped as many as 3 times before being handed over to the cities.  Millions in profits were taken every flip.

It was reported at the time the Alberta taxpayers lost 7 billion dollars in the deal!   This ushered in the era of indirect taxation.  Less money was given by the province to the cities.  The cities were given free reign on what they charged for power or what they added on as line charges (Line charge being 1 item on the bill that presumably comes off when the item is paid for)   EPCOR made it to National Geographic in April 2010 as being the highest priced water in the world.  Fortis have been said to say they are not making any money in Alberta and want out.  Soon after a US private buyer was announced by the Government. 

AESO who are not prone to error declared a several billion dollar error.   Who could have guessed?

They said we will be billed 20 dollars more per month initially moving rapidly up to 30.00 per month.

There are 1.5 million meters spinning in Alberta. At 20 dollars a meter is 3 million dollars a month new income for someone.  At 30 dollars per meter is 4.5 million dollars a month for someone or #54 million dollars a year for no defined number of years  of indirect taxation; no explanations.

BC's #Site C dam has been refused for years because at 1100 mwh it cannot pay for itself. However it does create a lake from which water can be pumped year around which is required by the Weatherford project. Site C is about exporting the Peace River not about generating electricity!

http://albertathedetails.blogspot.ca/2015/01/weatherford-project-detailed.html

I don't see how Christie can make sweeping good will promises in this wreckage of an economy we are living in.

Alberta Conservative Throne Speech-A pack of lies.

#First understand the RCMP cannot investigate the Conservatives unless they get express permission from the Attorney General.   Several times they have refused to get on board with the rest of Canada for a national securities commission, saying it wouldn't work for their business model.    They were busted for taking over 7 billion dollars from AIMCO pension funds.  The union held their feet to the fire and after much denials  came up with an unknown settlement.  One thing sure; it costs you.   They operate completely above and beyond the law!

Jim Prentice made his first major press release that was packed full of outright lies; a neat way to start a crooked party recovery!  This should convince you nothing at all has changed and its going to cost your dearly if you continue to support  these  characters!

His first outing  from the Edmonton Journal: 

1. He said we were getting top dollar on our crude WTI (West Texas Intermediate) 

2. He said royalty was rolling in. 

Fact: 1

Under Peter Lougheed we were on the NY crude prices; highest in the marketplace. Under Ralph Klein we found ourselves down a notch to WTI .

Under the new crew of neo-cons the wheels came off; (that is Prentice's group). They opted to price on the London based Brent prices which were designed for North Sea oil with no infrastructure in transportation to speak of. The lowest prices in the spectrum.   On top of this, Canadian high commissioner Stewart Beck said in the Financial Post Alberta was discounting the Brent prices by 20 to 25.00 per barrel.  That's 30% and its been going on since oil hit 200.00 per barrel.

What he published was not an error nor an oversight; it was planned deceit; outright and deliberate lies  that didn't fly for those who knew differently.

It is Alberta's oil producers who take the biggest hit.

This is a 3 billion dollar lie!

Fact: 2

Royalty was set up in the tar sands to encourage growth.  The royalty base was 34% but we collected only 1% until the plants were built..  In other words, the Alberta taxpayer paid for every cent of the tar sands projects by leaving 33% of their royalty with the various Companies. It is our expense, not the oil companies.

Just when we were going to collect the full 34%, Syncrude complained their Firestorm project should not be taxed at the full 34% as it was an additional build; not an improvement. There was a public show of the Government resisting this cut back in royalty.   Ralph Klein and Syncrude went on a well publicized fishing trip; a boat load of booze and no reporters allowed.  The results of this meeting as presented to the public was the Firestorm would be included in the 1%.  In other words Albertans would pay for it; not Syncrude.

We heard nothing at all on royalty for a couple years .  All enquiries to the Conservatives were turned away with no answers.  Then, Fred Dunn the Auditor General chastised the Government because they were not even collecting the 16% they had told him about.  Well that brought on a rash of hate Fred Dunn news releases and the Auditor General's budget was cut so badly the couldn't investigate anything new.

Then the portfolio fell to Loose Lips Ron Liepert who told us on TV our royalty rate was now 6% and it would stay there for 5 years  then, it dropped to zero; zilch.

Prentice is telling us his government is new, different but its not its the same if not worse.

Yet they may get in again because of low voter turn out.   22% of the vote gave them this huge majority.  The turnout in Whitecourt was only 16%; scary!

Support the Alberta Liberal;s get a change in Government that means something!   Raj Sherman is a strong leader and has put out points which he will fix in education, grade school, high school and graduate university.

As it is now we are graduating kids with the equivalent of grade 10 education as high school graduates!  I see in todays paper they are going to reduce the high school graduation on final exams from 50% which is the lowest in north America to 35% because of their inability to teach them anything.  I would fire the whole bloody works of them!

The Conservatives froze the Heritage Trust fund at 5% profits when oil was over 200.00 per barrel.  Anything above 5% was siphoned off into General Revenues and used as taxes.  We gave the oil majors over 700 billion dollars out of this fund!

Norway, both green and rich has got hundreds of billions of dollars banked from their oil industry (they don't do royalty they do taxation)  They are now Europe's bankers!.   They won't vote Conservative!

They have the highest educated population in Europe.  Every kid is guaranteed a university education free!

They turn out 70% of their population in every vote.  (put this against the ignorance of whitecourt  who turned out 16%)

On the burger economy; yes burgers can cost 10.00 each but the people working at McDonalds there make 100,000 a  year so the 10 dollar burger is no problem.  Economies to scale.

You in Alberta own this Resource!  You don't have to fight for it or kill for it as they do in other countries.  All you have to do is vote!

The Conservatives are counting on your ignorance and stay at home attitude and, they just may be right.

The Conservatives have gone to many of the smaller communities promising them multi millions of dollars for their pet projects but, only if they are elected.  They have done a version of this for the past 40 years!.

Redford goes to India-Theater!

Redford's trip to India is all political theater; part of an even larger venue.

India was obliged to shut down much of its nuclear electrical generation under pressure from the US. This left them with buckets of money which they loaded onto their power people telling them to get some petroleum generation going.

This crew came to Alberta begging to invest multi billions of dollars into the oil sands. 1 Condition; must have pipeline access guaranteed to west coast shipping.

Harper rigged the rules for the hearings. Consequently all environmentalists were knocked out of the conversation. They are doing the same thing on Kinder Morgan in the BC hearings.

Now we have Premier Redford in India on an extended stay under the pretense she is shopping when in reality she is telling them the fix is in the pipeline is a go! 

Her stay is extended; she is nowhere in sight for the shake down of the horrible record of kids who died while in Government care. She's nowhere in sight although the time covers her political tenure.  As Attorney General for many of these years involving deaths, Redford would have immediate and imminent knowledge and had every opportunity to change the system but chose to control the flow of information to its maximum.

Redford took office as Minister of Justice and Attorney General on March 12, 2008 to the end of Stelmach Government for those of  you who want to keep score.

This is part of the reason for her extended stay in India! 

This Government like no other is about self gratification, theater and their own personal rewards! 

The cost of shipping by rail is 10 to 15 dollar per barrel and the cost of shipping pipeline is 1/5th of that.
One doesn't have to be an accountant to follow the dots!

Christie is pushing it all onto the fed when in reality she is part of the original conception. 

Appropriate links can be found here The cost of shipping by rail is 10 to15 dollar per barrel and the cost of shipping pipeline is 1/5th of that.  Rail is a temporary shipping method until such time as the Pipeline is moving oil.

Redford's Fireside (Not!)

Key points and misconceptions.

Firstly; Remember Klein on his fireside saying read his lips; they are not going to privatize health care!  Some things never change. 

In excess of 70 Billions of dollars have been sucked from the Heritage Trust Fund!

She said they would start adding money to the Heritage Trust fund which hasn't been added to in 25 years.

 Truth is:  For 25 years this Government has frozen the investment profits of the Heritage Savings and Trust fund at  5%.  Everything above was pulled out and sent to General Revenues where it was used to reduce taxes for the Oil Concerns chiefly and small business, just a bit.  Individuals got next to nothing.  In this period of time there was a long inflation stretch where profits should have been in the 25% range..

This makes Albertans the highest taxed state in North America if not the world!

For all intents and purpose the Heritage Trust was robbed and the money sent down pipelines to the US parent companies. It  wouldn't have been any faster as a bank transfer!

This is another gross misconception; as close to a blatant, outright lie as one is going to get.  It is a far greater transgression than a spin doctor campaign.

The oil is extracted from the Bitumen along with High and Low vapor bases used in blending gasoline's and diesel fuels.   The resulting mix is a low volatile oil; cleaner than anything you will pull from the ground by conventional means.

The WTI; The Brent; The West Texas Crude are designations in markets that indicate impurities, not API or the Weight of the mix  Sulphur  is the key indexer.   Tar Sands crude is Sulphur  free!  It should be priced with the highest  priced market out there! 

In order  to get enough vapor base into the Tar Sands Crude, pristine sulphur free natural gas is added to the mix to bring it to the proper market desired vapor pressure to blend diesels and various gasoline.

Not only is it oil, but it is oil that has been tailored to the refineries it is going to!

You may recall a couple years  ago Natural Gas wells North of High Level were shut in by the Government .  This gas was needed for the blend.  There was never any news of the compensation given to the oil companies who owned the wells.  You can however bet it was the taxpayers who paid the price for it.

In addition, the refineries in the US only have to heat the oil a bit to get their blends.  This gives the US a low carbon foot print and Alberta wears the roses for the dirty part of the equation.

She has said we are loosing 6 billion dollars short this year in oil revenues.   Lets be more specific  here.  This is not  royalty; they are zilch.  It is the taxes off the various plants and shipping facilities.  And, according to the Conservatives (It doesn't  matter who is the leader) taxes is all we are entitled to as Albert ans.

She alluded to getting more for the oil at some nebulous time in the future.  It is time to speak of patterns here.  Stelmach popped out  PDF showing impossible royalty rates going into the future.  This was on the Eve of an election and no time to debate it.   At the bottom of the page was 6 pt print saying all revenues are taken in Canadian dollars.  That one line meant that we took an 18% cut in royalty at that point in time!

http://albertathedetails.blogspot.ca/2012/12/conservatives-playing-same-old-game.html

I can hardly wait for the lies that will come out  the next election.

It is very worthwhile to note that the Wild Rose Party has criticized Redford saying there is no reason to change our take on Royalty or change the markets on oil.

Three links that remain very important!

 http://albertathedetails.blogspot.com/2012/08/alberta-losses-billion-due-to.html

http://albertathedetails.blogspot.com/2012/08/alberta-putting-aside-fear-what-do-we.html

http://albertathedetails.blogspot.com/2012/02/alberta-royalty-explained.html