Friday, February 20, 2015

Recovery in a few years a dream!

We won't see the first part of a recovery for  6 years perhaps 7 and here is why.  The President of France has asked the EU to give up on the Russian Embargo which would do nothing at this point in time! He was rejected. Countries are playing down the Embargo and are more or less blaming the oil and LNG problem on fairies. Putin hooped them!

 Here is a link to what we could have been.

Oil suppliers around the world are leasing tankers for 1 to 2 years to store oil they can't sell with options to lengthen.  They are also saying times are better than 08 as there are more tankers available!

This stored oil will have to be used up before any new production can make it into the pipes. I'm saying 5 years for any improvements and 6 or 7 years before there is storage for new oil output. But; the world is set perfectly for a #protracted war.   Only a catastrophic failure like a war starting in the middle east and escalating though the Crimea and the world can change this scenario and, for the worse. Our young people as cannon fodder again.  

Recent propaganda pictures of Putin talking nuclear strike alternatives with his henchmen is at this point saber rattling.

Alberta's oil is being shipped by rail to the US where it goes into storage in Cushing Ill. Storage is expensive and limited.  The oil pipelines from Cushing to Texas Gulf are hitting their own problems it will be years before there is one; if then.

The US cannot refuse Canadian oil but it is all mixed in with market capacity in the US.  Obama signed a deal with Mexico to allow them to ship to the Gulf Refinery.  Obama has a surplus of oil coming out of shale that wasn't there before.   #Both these large items reduce the amount of oil they have to take from Canada!  Obama is hooping the Republicans who incidentally did the same thing to him.   

The Bakken Shale oil  is very high in High Vapor Base apparently.  This is the stuff that gasoline is made of.  Static build up in transit can cause ignition when exposed to enough air.  You either use to to make Gasoline or you reinject it back into the strata.  If you choose the latter it will turn out like Norman Wells, NWT where so much #condensate was injected back that it started to show up as an increasing high content at the wellhead meaning more cost and time to get it out of the oil so they can make P30;40 50 and jet fuel.  Point is it does not come out of a separate spout it is part of the crude!  US oil lies when it says they have in any way increased the flash point of their crude!  I see room for lawsuits here!

It is so rich in HVB which is very volatile the cars were self igniting causing ruling they had to reduce the amount of condensate in the crude.  Mini Refineries at wellhead?    They did this but still have had 3 fiery crashes which means they have to cut back more if they are serious about prevention.    This puts a glut of condensate in the US who now, for the first time ever have given permission to export condensate from the US.  Worthwhile to note our Tar Sands needs Condensate to enrich the crude.

#Prentice (Alberta) tells us here on the 18th there will be 3 years before any oil norms are reached!  That is Impossible and still another lie!  I'm saying the #oil will still be in those tankers at least  4 years down the road and that will have to be used before they can tap into new production. I'm saying up to 7 years before there is an improvement and predicting thousands laid off in the meantime.  As of now we have lost all of our markets! 

Consumer buying power in the west will be drastically reduced further dampening the world economy.  This is a bad time to be over financed on dream homes and boy's toy's! 

Obama has helped his people by guaranteeing companies in the shale production a working price on their oil.  Alberta can't do that; they blew it all; giving it away to oil!  We have nothing to face except higher taxes.

Prentice is jigging to get himself past the spring election as is Harper and this pipeline will give them another shot at the ring where there is nothing in their futures now.

#Harper and Kenny's bizarre immigration plan to legalize American oil patch illegals does nothing better than compound the problems faced by Alberta and all provinces! The criminal element they brought in with their stand on no vetting; no background checks is coming back to bite us. No matter which way you look at it Conservatives have made it worse.  Vancouver BC is now reporting Mexican Cartel gangs running the dope.  We never had that before!

In 2008 the Americans purchased the surplus oil in the tankers shortening considerably the drought. Not so this time, the Americans have their own shale oil they are topping up their storage!

As for #Saudi being the bad guys? It is simply not so! 

At the heart of it all is the West embargo on Russia who immediately responded with Gazprom inking a long term cheap oil and LNG deals with China. China to this point was the sacred market of the west including BC. I say cheap and long term because *China responded by saying their LNG plants (5 of them) in Indonesia are not making money enough so put them all up for sale! China's CNOOC Ltd is now declaring large losses on their petroleum.

The #Chinese operating company of these LNG (China's CNOOC Ltd) plants started their own price cutting scheme about the same time Gazprom declared an increase in output and opened up exports increasing them in Indonesia, China and Russia. All this is #Saudi turf; what would you have them do? 

It is Putin who hooped our diplomats and took our markets; not the Saudi. I see #Merkel's hand on all of it.

The US limited Saudi input into the Gulf refinery hurting them further. This, while Obama inked a deal with Mexico to import their heavy crude into the Gulf Refinery and haul away Condensates to upgrade their crude in their own country. 

Perhaps Obama is playing the long game; looking 7 years down the road and wants a place to put the US oil?

This put the cold wash on the Keystone pipeline. At best; a world of uncertainty. In case you missed it; all of our existing markets have gone!  #Stopping the embargo on Russia is not going to change anything now. Its in the works for years to come.

Japan (Christies(BC) big dream) who the petroleum people looked upon as a gold mine asked Obama if they could get in on the 3.00 LNG market north America. He said no. Christie in BC's get rich fast deal went down the tubes. A new Government in Japan! Immediately 3 nuclear plants re-commissioned with notice they will build 6 more state of the art plants within the next two years. 

The Conservatives in Alberta have been lying for years. They have pulled trillions of dollars yes, Trillions out of Alberta's economy and tucked it into the oil pockets. 

Quick list:
Heritage trust frozen at 5% everything else went into General Revenues as taxes.. Loss to Alberta  over 700 billion dollars.

They discounted our oil by 30% going into any deal. Trillions lost there over the years. 

We collect zero for royalty and have not collected any for several years. Multi millions lost there. 

Flat tax: middle class pay the bulk of the taxes; industry gets a free ride.  This is money taken off your table.

I don't want to loose my home; my pensions. I will be supporting the Federal Liberals and the Alberta NDP who will put in a variable tax like the rest of Canada has. The 10% tax in place makes the middle and low income pay the lion's share of the taxes while oil floats free. The Alberta Liberals take the same position.  A link to their platform and history  

Other choices?  None realistically.  The Alberta Party was invented by the oil companies not to win anything, but to split the vote on the left because they haven't gone anywhere to date they probably don't get the bills paid for by oil.  

No my friends, there is no up side!

Other Ministers have been busy too.  Cardinal sold or leased all the crown free grazing lands on the east slope of the Rockies to the Agra Food Industry (Nestle?)  That is where all our water aquifers start!  First in line, first in time for settling water disputes.

When an oil company #asked for a bucket of water they were given a swimming pool!  In this way the Conservatives used up all the water allotments.  On one side these allotments can be sold; Is this the end of Provincial ownership?  On the other end oil companies can claim they used only a small portion of their allotments when challenged on their use of the water.

Brooks ran short of water because of their allotment numbers not because there was no water available.  They #paid an oil company 1 million dollars for a portion of their water allotments who in turn claim they gave it to an unnamed charity.  A second allotment was bought from an Conservative insider for an undisclosed amount.

The St. Mary's water agreement was/is under pressure.  The Americans figure now they were hooped when they gave that amount of water off the St. Mary's Glacier to Canada.

Cardinal worked his crooked magic.  The #Water Association for St. Mary's was overhauled.  If a person did not have property on the St. Mary's aquifer they were removed from any membership.  Only people who were actually on the aquifer could vote.  Rock piles that were on the aquifer but not leased or owned were quickly sold to insiders it is all about the privatization of water in Alberta and Canada.

It is a good time to mention #Harper has three times refused to acknowledge water as a human right in Canada!  It brings to mind a photo I seen about a Bechtel water operation in I think Africa.  Only blacks in the picture carrying tin petro buckets on their heads and a person being refused water because he didn't have 5 cents to pay for a bucket full.

Harper has turned loose hundreds of #water export permits from Canada. The Royal Bank holds a lot of them.

When Klein "privatized" Electricity he invented Power Purchase Agreement.  A generator could not own transmission was at the crux of it so the generation from each plant was sold as a PPA public bids were asked for, no names of who bid or what was bid were ever released.  Big buck insiders reported as the participants.  Reports of the PPA's being flipped as many as 3 times before being handed over to the cities.  Millions in profits were taken every flip.

It was reported at the time the Alberta taxpayers lost 7 billion dollars in the deal!   This ushered in the era of indirect taxation.  Less money was given by the province to the cities.  The cities were given free reign on what they charged for power or what they added on as line charges (Line charge being 1 item on the bill that presumably comes off when the item is paid for)   EPCOR made it to National Geographic in April 2010 as being the highest priced water in the world.  Fortis have been said to say they are not making any money in Alberta and want out.  Soon after a US private buyer was announced by the Government. 

AESO who are not prone to error declared a several billion dollar error.   Who could have guessed?
They said we will be billed 20 dollars more per month initially moving rapidly up to 30.00 per month.
There are 1.5 million meters spinning in Alberta. At 20 dollars a meter is 3 million dollars a month new income for someone.  At 30 dollars per meter is 4.5 million dollars a month for someone or #54 million dollars a year for no defined number of years  of indirect taxation; no explanations.

BC's #Site C dam has been refused for years because at 1100 mwh it cannot pay for itself. However it does create a lake from which water can be pumped year around which is required by the Weatherford project. Site C is about exporting the Peace River not about generating electricity!

I don't see how Christie can make sweeping good will promises in this wreckage of an economy we are living in.

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