Sunday, March 29, 2015

Danielle Smith's loss sure shows!

It couldn't happen to a better person!  She has been playing both ends against the middle too long.  I hope it is the last we see or hear of her!

Friday, March 27, 2015

Alberta Budget-prone to a lot of things! Including your vote.

We are brought to this point because the people of Alberta decided it didn't matter to vote!  Chances are statistically if you are reading this you are one of them!

Complaining is not the same as voting!  You can bet the Conservatives will make it nearly impossible for  you to vote by last minuet changes to addresses and so on.  They have changed the vote parameters such the country vote is worth 6 of the urban vote.  That means if you are city or urban you have to turn out!  If you don't there is a financial hell awaiting you!   You can't afford to live here; I don't care what you think your situation is.

The Conservatives figure they can turn this sinking ship around using old conservative policy and practice!

First off:  Paying more for health care means paying for most of it!  It is a conservative dream to totally privatize health care!  And, they are using this self made crisis to institute it.   Witness: Alberta Blue Cross has hit the province with  a whole new batch of signup applications.   And being a Conservative organization they fail to tell you they cover nothing until you are signed up for a year!

A 50 dollar office call is nothing to Prentice and his crew. This is what you have to look forward to.

The Opposition parties have all camped on a 2500 dollar additional cost for every family!  The figure is closer to and if not over 5000 dollars extra to shell out.  Remember it is not  your expenses it is a money grab through the resulting taxes to support this Government so it can continue uninterrupted.

If you happen to be a small business with a store front remember your customers are out of pocket 5 grand before they wake up in the morning!  Rather than you worrying about your cheap income tax it is time to worry about your customer base!

We have a 30.00 charge coming at us on our utilities bill for electricity. This goes into the Government's pocket! There are 1.5 million meters spinning in this province; that is billions of dollars over the next few  years and 360 dollars per year out of your individual pockets that is one of the things not named in their budget speech and because there is a lot of thing not unlike it that I'm saying its going to cost  you over 5 grand!

The Globe reported that Norway has over a Trillion dollars in offshore banks (to ease the burden of their local economy)  Alberta took all our money and tucked it into oil corporation pockets!  That doesn't effect pensions!  That went straight into foreign operational capital.

Norway has free University for those who want it!  Norway has health care second to none in the world free!  And, they have had a socialist Government throughout! As world bankers they are coasting through this downturn which is going to last another 6  years minimum perhaps more.  We have lost all of our oil markets!  Cushing Ill where Alberta crude goes is filling more every day even though they try to get rid of it.  Cushing is one of 5 of the US oil security areas in the US.

Obama is busy building 11,600 miles of new 36" diameter pipeline across their nation to become oil self sufficient.  That market gone too!

The Price of oil is being pushed up by speculation and speculation alone!  Obama took oil from the reserves in the US when oil hit 100.00 a barrel.  That helped drop the price of oil.  There is no product more heavily manipulated than oil!  We have lost our customers!

There is no new oil contracts!  We are paying premium 2.50 per barrel to ship rail oil to Cushing to be stored!  Our oil is no more or less volatile than is the stuff moving out of the US Bakkans. Just wait!  What differs is the amount of Condensate (our's is less). But, it goes bang no matter how much is in it. Alberta's storage is topping up too; then what?

Obama is facing a date in which he has to start replacing the oil he  has drawn. My guess is he will say to hell with that date like he has disregarded so many things leaving the speculators to bankrupt themselves and he will hold out for his 20.00 oil or as close as he can get to it to replenish.

And  you hear effected unions crying pure BS!   I ask you where are the 80,000 new Albertans going to come from?   We are bleeding population every day!  And, we have at least 6 more years of the bleed.  People are finally going home; in droves.   The new houses up for resale are heart breakers.

We have one chance and one chance only to survive this in any semblance of  personal comfort and that is to vote NDP; the only sane voice in the Frey!   There are a lot of ways to approach these problems and the Conservative way is shown not to work!

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

The real update on Canada's oil (bad) situation.

The embargo against Russia started it all! Behind this was Germany's Merkel; not one to be shy. Russia cut the world's best (lowest) deal with China who was the golden target for oil for the western world the world of optimism; gone!

Long term and cheap! China has 5 LNG producing plants in Indonesia. The low prices China received caused her to say they were not making sufficient money and put the lot up for sale!

The Chinese operators slashed prices on LNG. Putting the Saudi into It is this low-ball LNG contest working the Saudi Market.   That dictates what the Saudi will produce. It is a BTU fight; not an oil fight.

The world looked to Japan as a huge LNG market.  Japan was forced to pay 16.00 and 17,00 per mcf which North America bought for 3.00 for the same amount. 

And, then; a change of Government in Japan who immediately started up its 3 operational Nuclear plants but not without  first asking Obama if they could be included in the North American 3.00 gas.Obama said "NO!"

This same Japanese Government has said it will have 6 more nuclear plants operating within 2 years. And, there goes the get rich fast dreams of BC and Indonesia who were selling into Japan at 15.00 and 17.00.  Japan's economy has made major improvements since.

Obama has oil shale for a new toy and has Guaranteed his producers a minimum price per barrel regardless of where the world price goes.  There has been 11,600 miles of new pipeline built from the Bakken to mid America to hook onto Gulf pipelines while Keystone is stalled. I didn't know that was legal! 

Obama then, he reduced the Saudi access into the Gulf Refinery while inking a deal with Mexico to put their supply into the Gulf for the first time.  This put more pressure on the Saudi and the world.  It is US self interest that is propelling this disaster and "our" oil companies are for the most part US and China owned.

The shale has topped up the US national storage so there is no quick unloads for all those tankers that are being used as storage. (2008 seen the US empty them into their inventory that isn't there now!)

The largest available storage is Cushing IL. and it is almost full if not so already!

The prospects of a pipeline from Cushing to the Gulf coast get lower every day as shale pipelines increase  Through its new Shale pipeline network 11,600 miles of new pipe put down already with communities signing on to the land access with no problems.

Shale has a Achilles heel! It is high in condensate, the stuff Gasoline is made of and the stuff that determines if the finished product is P40 P50 or JetB. Lots left over to make Avgas so much so that Obama passed laws saying the US for the first time can export condensate.

The Achilles Heel is in the tank cars floating lots of condensate. When gasoline is made out of it a chromium additive is put in so that the sloshing of the gas will take its ever present static charge to the ground of the gas tank to bleed away harmlessly. No such additives are added to the tank cars because the chromium is harmful in other products down the line. It takes very little gasoline to contaminate a diesel storage tank!

When I was training Dangerous Goods handling in oil patch and industry I was asked to figure out why the trucks that haul from the crude lines to other refinery or tanks were catching fire on occasion. So, I looked at the operation. 

The truckers had tied a styrene Perfex jug to a styrene line to the bottom of their tank. On a one man operation, he could stand at the line valve and turn the vapour rich hot oil off when the plastic jug showed up at the lid (vent) at the top of the tank.

What was happening; the styrene has a high propensity for static electricity. The bottle would take on a very large charge from the oil. When it touched the upper rim of the tank it would discharge harmlessly if the contact was in a vapour rich environment.

However, if there was a wind blowing and their often is, there would be lean vapour area at the truck tank vent and when the bottle arched there, it would catch the truck on fire!
Think back to the rail cars this stuff is sloshing around and there is no antistatic additives. When they go over and splash there has to be some place in that catastrophe where the air mixture is right and, up it goes.

The only way condensate content could be controlled as Obama has said is for a small refinery to be at every well head. In short, its not going to happen! Those crude oil cars remain very dangerous if they go over and the oil industry is fully familiar with this.
No, this isn't about Saudi supply nor is it about Japan's refusal to be gouged any more. It is however about a complete collapse of the traditional oil markets.  It is about the US self interest and getting the infrastructure in place before Obama is out!   Wait until the pipelines start to blow!
There is no upside! And pipelines to the sea will help in about 10 years time. My bet is we will see 20 dollar oil pretty soon and it will be lasting.

The Gulf refinery strikes are causing the filling of storage even faster so the crap storm is heading our way, even faster

To digress just a bit!  Alberta Conservatives are tapping power line construction for billions of dollars to cover their cash shortage and its all coming from your pockets (again).
AESO announced a 20.00/month increase starting immediately to cover unnamed errors.  This is to be replaced with a 30.00 per month charge soon after.
There are 1.5 million meters in this province.
At 20.00 That is 3 million dollars per month income for Prentice and company or 36 million dollars a year and they don't say how many years this is going to run!

At 30.00 per month that is 4.5 million dollars per month or 54 million dollars a year fresh taxation onto Albertans.  Yet, the Conservatives say no to a progressive tax system as in effect in the rest of the country instead leaving it on the flat tax which middle class Albertans pay the bulk of the taxes.

We need a different kind of Government to get us through this crisis; we do not need more of the same which promises to go on for more than 6 years!  The Conservatives have been lying their through their teeth on the evils of socialism and you have been eating it up like kids to candy.

Norway since it broke away from Sweden has had a continuing Socialist Government!  They have hundreds of billions of dollars in the banks off shore.  Off shore so as not to mess with the local economies.  Every Norwegian is guaranteed a university education free if they want it.   Their medical facilities are among the most advanced in Europe!  There is no shortage of professionals to staff the health care!  There is no shortage of beds!.

The Conservatives have robbed our Heritage fund of more than 700 billion dollars.  They have run a 30% discount on our oil for over 10 years.  This amounts to trillions lost to the province and producers.

I am going to continue to support the NDP, the only party that has shown any degree of sanity.
If you don't vote; nothing will change and you will hate the outcome.

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