Monday, October 12, 2015

Our oil Problems, an American perspective, once overhauled.

How this came about:
‪#‎Shale‬ oil production improved US self Sufficiency. As well, they cut the Saudi off from traditional access to the gulf refinery; a hard hit for the @Saudi's. This left the Saudi fighting a 2 front price ware. ‪#‎Primary‬ was the @Chinese Indonesian gas plants who were selling LNG into the Saudi market at extremely low prices forcing the Saudi into a BTU war rather than an oil price war. Politics and embargo put the Russian Gazprom head on with the Saudi in the same market place. Hit from 3 sides they are/were in dire straights.
The ‪#‎US‬ when cutting off the @Saudi from the gulf coast access inked a first time deal with Mexico which allows them almost unrestricted access to the oil refineries on the Gulf. In an unprecedented move, the US for the first time also allows ‪#‎Mexico‬ to import condensate from the US. This combination of moves leaves @Mexico in a position to further refine their own oil and gas supplies in quantity.
The oil companies and media at times blame the Saudi for all the trouble. Simply not true.
The Results: Oil operations are too difficult to shut down and restart again. The Conservative total arrogance and fumbling of negotiations opting for confrontation rather than negotiation have prevented a coastal water export point for Canada's oil. Harper in bed with the US Republicans wanted all the oil to continue to go to the Gulf Coast through Cushing Ok. They did little or nothing other than aggravate the pipeline situation.
Now stranded between a rock and a hard place Alberta is in the course of building 80 million barrels of new storage in Alberta. This, to stockpile the produced oil from plants that can't shut down. Alberta is still producing 200.000 barrels a day of crude that is 400 days of production and little is going to change in that period of time. Banks don't pay for oil sitting in storage.
The only good thing I have seen in the media in the past week is that the Saudi is going to sit at the table with the Russians. There is a remote chance there is sanity at the table but, not all players are present.
The natural gas is another story of Conservative blundering. Both Federal and Provincial. Dreams were turned into projects based on the 17.50 per mcf of gas being charged to Japan which in turn kept the Indonesian gas markets high. @Japan in a crisis of economy over paying these high prices and having no popular choice after the earthquake asked the US if they could be included in the 3.00 mcf market that was in place in the US and Canada. (Hence the golden dreams of gas forever) @Christie Clark bought heavily into this. It will come back to bite BC big time!
Obama said NO! Japan, to survive, opened up its one good ‪#‎Nuclear‬plant and proceed to bring another 2 plants into shape within months. This killed most of their need for natural gas imports. Japan also told the world it would have 6 more plants on line within a year! Forever ending the need for natural gas and the crashed natural gas market place.
There is no upside to this tale of a whole! A future under Harper and his crew mean a future of Corporate Welfare and ongoing catering to the whims of the US Republicans.
I'm going to put this up on The coming weeks may see some relief but I really don't think so.
And, remember that the often quoted Fraser think tank is a Conservative Organization made up of US Republican Members and Canadian Conservatives most of which have dual citizenships.
The IKOS polling company was established by the Conservative Party of Canada who in turn, tongue in cheek say they are arm's length and unbiased.

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