Showing posts with label Gazprom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gazprom. Show all posts

Monday, October 12, 2015

Our oil Problems, an American perspective, once overhauled.

How this came about:
‪#‎Shale‬ oil production improved US self Sufficiency. As well, they cut the Saudi off from traditional access to the gulf refinery; a hard hit for the @Saudi's. This left the Saudi fighting a 2 front price ware. ‪#‎Primary‬ was the @Chinese Indonesian gas plants who were selling LNG into the Saudi market at extremely low prices forcing the Saudi into a BTU war rather than an oil price war. Politics and embargo put the Russian Gazprom head on with the Saudi in the same market place. Hit from 3 sides they are/were in dire straights.
The ‪#‎US‬ when cutting off the @Saudi from the gulf coast access inked a first time deal with Mexico which allows them almost unrestricted access to the oil refineries on the Gulf. In an unprecedented move, the US for the first time also allows ‪#‎Mexico‬ to import condensate from the US. This combination of moves leaves @Mexico in a position to further refine their own oil and gas supplies in quantity.
The oil companies and media at times blame the Saudi for all the trouble. Simply not true.
The Results: Oil operations are too difficult to shut down and restart again. The Conservative total arrogance and fumbling of negotiations opting for confrontation rather than negotiation have prevented a coastal water export point for Canada's oil. Harper in bed with the US Republicans wanted all the oil to continue to go to the Gulf Coast through Cushing Ok. They did little or nothing other than aggravate the pipeline situation.
Now stranded between a rock and a hard place Alberta is in the course of building 80 million barrels of new storage in Alberta. This, to stockpile the produced oil from plants that can't shut down. Alberta is still producing 200.000 barrels a day of crude that is 400 days of production and little is going to change in that period of time. Banks don't pay for oil sitting in storage.
The only good thing I have seen in the media in the past week is that the Saudi is going to sit at the table with the Russians. There is a remote chance there is sanity at the table but, not all players are present.
The natural gas is another story of Conservative blundering. Both Federal and Provincial. Dreams were turned into projects based on the 17.50 per mcf of gas being charged to Japan which in turn kept the Indonesian gas markets high. @Japan in a crisis of economy over paying these high prices and having no popular choice after the earthquake asked the US if they could be included in the 3.00 mcf market that was in place in the US and Canada. (Hence the golden dreams of gas forever) @Christie Clark bought heavily into this. It will come back to bite BC big time!
Obama said NO! Japan, to survive, opened up its one good ‪#‎Nuclear‬plant and proceed to bring another 2 plants into shape within months. This killed most of their need for natural gas imports. Japan also told the world it would have 6 more plants on line within a year! Forever ending the need for natural gas and the crashed natural gas market place.
There is no upside to this tale of a whole! A future under Harper and his crew mean a future of Corporate Welfare and ongoing catering to the whims of the US Republicans.
I'm going to put this up on
http://albertathedetails.blogspot.ca/ The coming weeks may see some relief but I really don't think so.
And, remember that the often quoted Fraser think tank is a Conservative Organization made up of US Republican Members and Canadian Conservatives most of which have dual citizenships.
The IKOS polling company was established by the Conservative Party of Canada who in turn, tongue in cheek say they are arm's length and unbiased.

Thursday, April 02, 2015

Up to date summary with the players mapped out.

It blows my imagination when I think of Albertans still voting for Conservatives who have done nothing but rob them blind for the past 15 years or more. 

I will map it out:
They have taken more than 700 billion dollars from our heritage Savings and Trust fund, They did this by limiting the growth to 5% taking all above and putting it into General Revenues to spend as taxes.(we sure could have used that now)
They continue to operate as an extension of the oil cartels rather than custodians of this province!
Starting about 10 years ago they discounted our oil going to market by 30% this shorted the Alberta Producers and the Alberta economy this effectively moved 30% of the revenue out of Alberta and Canada and into the pockets of the oil principals in the US Gulf Coast who in turn made huge profits exporting.
Our losses over this period of time, on this one item I would place at a minimum of 3 Trillion dollars!
When our deal on oil was first made, we got 34% of sales on the finished plant but only charged 1% until the built plant was paid for in full with no audits on costs. Albertans paid for those plants 110% This is when Ralph Klein took over. When Klein left office the drain was already on the Heritage Trust fund and our royalty was down to 16% the lowest in the world! We only discovered this when Fred Dunn Alberta Auditor General chided the Government for collecting only 16% of the royalty when they were telling the public we were at 19%. 
This prompted a hate Fred Dunn campaign by the Conservatives, they cut the auditor general budget to nothing forcing him out of office because he couldn't afford to do anything.
There was an interim Energy Minister then, Ron Liepert who announced on TV that Albertans should learn to tighten their belts. Our royalty was down to 6% and was going to fall from there. Our royalty for the past 2 years has been zero%
Just a few weeks ago it was announced there would be a $30 addition to every power bill in the province as a power line build tax. There is no ending date on this. There are 1.5 million meters spinning in this province which means a billion dollar rip off every 2 years!
We are shedding population like a dog sheds flees!  As the population numbers plummet we will be expected to pay still more probably through our well established indirect taxation system, the utilities. There is no shortage of water. Oil companies asked for a basin of water and were given an allotment of a swimming pool. In this way the Conservatives on one side would say we are out of water (allotments) an oil on the other side could say how responsible we are, we didn't use our allotment!
Our problem is not spending which brings me to the Wild Rose Party. They are born and raised in Southern Alberta Guided by the LDS church who contribute heavily to the US Republicans and have taught that considerable population in southern Alberta that a hard conservative Government is the only way to survive.
They know from experience that a Republican Government or a Conservative Government or something even more ugly, the Wild Rose Party will cut social programs forcing people back to the church and their famous community cellar for their daily ration.
To give the LDS credit they are the first to have boots and supplies on the ground on world disasters, well ahead of most governments, being well funded through perks and supplies from the various Republican Governments.
The Wild Rose Party say time again it is the spending that is out of order, too much money sent to Ottawa. What they are talking about is the cornerstone of what makes Canada, Canada!
The Transfer payments they are so vocal about cutting off cannot Legally be cut off but it doesn't stop them from saying so. They justify this by saying Alberta has never received funding from Ottawa and in private they talk about how it was the Chase Manhattan Bank that saved Alberta in those early days.
In fact Alberta received equalization-transfer payments from conception until 1947 and again from 1957 to 1965. We got our share of the program when we needed it! It is a Canadian solution so both Harper and the WRP want to end it. Harper put his election crew in charge of the WRP election campaign for Smith and Dinning, now a lobbyist for the oil companies was their poster boy and occasional commenter.
We were often compared to Norway who had a similar oil output to Alberta. Norway has over 1 trillion dollars in offshore banks, now acting as the Bankers for Europe! They have a taxation system in their country that operates their country. This all done to protect their industry.
They offer free university for those who want it. They have state of the art medical facilities and availability that is second to none.
This highly educated group turn out 70% of their population for every vote. The Conservatives got in with just 23% because voter turn out in Alberta was so dismal; like wise Canada!
This crisis for which we have no backup is going to last a minimum of 6 years! More than likely 8 years with never a full recovery. We have lost all our markets; customers with exception of a trickle into Cushing Ill. And, Obama is busy laying 11,600 miles of new pipelines. My guess is hooking up the 5 US authority districts for oil. That way they would take advantage of more bits of storage here and there.
The Conservatives are lying through their teeth going into an election where they will continue to do the same thing over and over as they have done in the past. Please, learn from it!
One other very important item: Alberta put up a make work program for the oil patch in the last major downturn. It was to cover the large amount of illegal immigrants working oil.  Being illegal they did not have EI nor the regular support.  It was miner; lasted 2 years at the end of which time the Conservatives announced it had cost taxpayers 6 billion dollars.  (More lies I know for a fact these people were getting 1 or 2 days a week work, certainly not 6 billion dollars worth)
Knowing full well they never had that kind of money (very little in fact) I checked the AIMCO financial statement just released and it showed AIMCO posting a 7 billion dollar loss while other like companies were posting 3% gains. 7 billion was a 10% loss a difference of 13%
AIMCO supposedly look after the municipal and Government pension funds. I contacted the unions who entered into the fray with the Government who denied for 3 weeks they did not touch the pension funds.
When they were hit with the prospect of court and AIMCo producing their books in that court in disclosure the Government relented. Yes they did take the money and arrangements were made to repay.
So, in this one single action the Alberta Conservatives proved themselves to be Liars, thieves and cheats. Smooth move to show their colors so clearly.
Kinder Morgan has announced the building of a storage capacity in Edmonton; an additional 4.8 million barrels. That is because US national storage is filling up. We are heading into our slow season for oil; heating is off. Cushing is rapidly filling up and its too expensive by comparison to the price of oil to build new pipelines from Cushing to the Gulf coast. And, that section isn't on Obama’s list.
How did all this come about!
Merkel the all powerful German Conservative wanted an embargo on Russia. Harper joined in; he didn’t want to be left out. Lord help those who don’t show up for the tea party. Germany imports all her oil, the lower the prices go the better off they are!  Gotta love politics!
Russia immediately put Gazprom to work who inked a long term very cheap deal with China on LNG and Oil. China to this point was the Wests big dream of a continuing market. China responded by putting its 5 LNG plants in Indonesia up for sale citing they were not making enough money. (As compared to cheap gas from Russia) No takers yet. But, this threw the Saudi into a BTU war with Indonesia to protect the Saudi market. It affected the whole world as prices plummeted.
Obama didn't help things by curtailing Saudi access to the Gulf Refineries. More pressure on Saudi; more price cutting and more cheap oil out.
Another market was Japan who were buying LNG at 17.00 per mcf and the west and Indonesia were buying at 3.00 per mcf. Japan asked for some relief in prices as their economy was sinking. They were told no!
A new election produced a new Government who immediately put back online its 3 remaining nuclear plants and promised to build 6 more in the next 2 years. Their economy has already improved but the dream market of Christie in BC and the west in general had disappeared.
I am going to support the Alberta NDP. They are fiscally responsible and sane. The latter as important as the first and I think I have demonstrated that socialism is safe and that the Conservative failed state is really the source of our problems.
Complaining on line is not going to change anything! The only change will come by you turning out and voting when the time comes! And yes, your vote does make a difference!
And to the people in Southern Alberta; have you not been manipulated long enough.
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