Saturday, August 25, 2012

Alberta losses > billion$ due to Conservative policy!

The Conservatives have told us repeatedly we have oil produced second only to Saudi Arabia!  Think of that if you doubt the numbers while looking at deficit budgeting.

Lost royalty $44,700,000 (Cash)
Lost Taxes    $13,981,000 (Cash)
Total Cash Loss to Alberta Taxpayers:   $58,681,000 per day!  21.419 billion dollars US  just this year, 2012!

The  money ripped out of Alberta's economy  in 1 day in millions:
Discounted oil down the pipe:   55,925,000
Lost Royalty and Taxes :              58,681,000  
Total                                              $114,606,000 per day loss!  41.832 billion dollars US per year!
As a bonus; a view from Norway who criticize Ireland's Conservatives  who collect nothing for royalty. 

VIDEO: How not to manage oil wealth, with lessons from Norway (good) and Ireland (bad)

The numbers are inside calculated at 25% oil discount and it is actually 30%; over 42 Billion a year.
Since this post was put up, the Energy Minister has said he will "start"  to reduce the amount of the discount in 2 years time.   Two years time brings us to a new election window!  The last time we entered an election considering provincial loss of revenues, was at Stelmach's last run.  The Conservatives released at .pdf at the eve of the election which had pie in the sky; impossible figures for oil royalty.  I warned people at the time there was nothing in the document for this province.

In fact, that same document further reduced the royalty by changing Alberta's take from US dollars to Canadian Dollars a loss to the people of this province of 18% at that time!

In the time frame outlined for the "start" by the Minister, we will have lost an additonal 150 billion dollars in provincial revenues by ripping that amount from our economy!

They have lied every election.  They are lying now!  Oil and the Alberta Conservatives and Wild Rose (all one of the same) are not going to give up the fight for billions of dollars, theirs or not.

This same figure is also missing from the Balance of Trade Figures internationally which makes the Canadian dollar worth much more than is represented!  Bad news for Manufacturing.

You have often wonder why, if we are such a "rich" province do we not have any money nor do we have jobs for many of our people.  This is why!!

Arguments are coming on the Web which ask if collecting these monies would effect investment.
The answer is NO!  No other province does this and, they are doing just fine with production moving up on Alberta.

The Details:

I must apologize to my many readers. In the post  I did what I have told you never to do.  That is, accept Government figures on anything!   The above post is taken from figures given to the news media to publish on Alberta's production figures.

I assume the much lower numbers released is to cover the fact the conventional crude oil is running out fast and is expected to drop to less than half in another 8 years.   They would not have had to explain away changes in production figures had this been allowed to ride.  No other province in Canada or State in the US does this kind of giveaway!  It is criminal!

Industry figures are very different and they are available on CAPP for your viewing pleasure at

Alberta Taxpayer owns 25% of the Tar sands but collect nothing.   For this excise I will take 20% USD  based on 100.00 per US Barrel.  If oil prices are at 125.00 per bbl multiply the daily figure by 1.25.  If oil is priced at 87.00 dollars; take the daily figure at .87 and you will know how much you lost that day!  It would be nice if news media would carry an ongoing clock "how much you lost today or month"

What is not considered here is the exchange we lose between the US numbers and Canadian numbers including dollars.  The Conservatives changed our take to Canadian Dollars on their last phony royalty increase!  This means an additional 1 to 14% loss across the board added to the first dollar figures.

Industry on the other hand came forward with more accurate, reasonable numbers that were published in the Edmonton Journal and the Calgary Herald and taken from the CAPP website.  The Edmonton Journal's excellent journalism and research should not go unnoticed.  In my mind they are worthy of a Pulitzer award! 

The figures following are the lowest possible, the very least losses we are encountering! 

The report comes the day after CIBC World Markets released a report that suggests oilsands producers could add 270,000 bpd per day per year of capacity through 2020 for a total of about four million bpd, up from 1.6 million bpd in 2011.

The forecast is considerably more bullish than one published in June by CAPP which estimated growth at an average of 180,000 bpd per year to 3.2 million bpd in 2020 from actual 1.6 million in 2011 Recent  news releases by the companies indicate the CIBC is correct and on track.

 This study will include the considerable conventional oil production now at 1.2 million bpd  and is expected to be just half of that amount by 2025. The life of the field can be extended by flooding with carbon dioxide and water.  The Conservatives are looking for ways to charge the taxpayer  for this.

 The Conservatives have taken all your resources and given you nothing; nodding, smiling and lying to you  every step of the way dropping a little gold here and there to keep you happy and mellow.  They are well on their way to taking your water also.

Production  Tar Sands:          1.037 Million Barrels per day output.
Production  Conventional:    1.2 Million Barrels per day and falling fast!
Total Alberta production is  2.237 million barrels per day!

Neighboring provinces collect royalty at  20% not the 25% to which we are entitled.  I will also use the 20% for the resulting figure of  447,400 barrels per day owned by the taxpayer in Alberta.

At  100.00 per barrel that  $44,740,000.00 per day we are due!  (actual cash lost) We get zilch!
The Conservatives  discount oil in pipelines at 25% off the lower Brent crude price.

That is 559,250 barrels of oil per day the producers of this province do not get paid for that in itself is a rip off of $55,925,000 (millions  dollars us per day) from the Alberta Economy!

Lost Taxes on the oil shipped free:  $13,981,000 (millions per day)

The final numbers in:
Lost royalty $44,700,000 (Cash)
Lost Taxes    $13,981,000 (Cash)
Total Cash Loss to Alberta Taxpayers:   $58,681,000 per day!  21.419 dollars US  just this year, 2012!

The  money ripped out of Alberta's economy  in 1 day in millions:
Discounted oil down the pipe:   55,925,000
Lost Royalty and Taxes :              58,681,000  
Total                                              $114,606,000 per day loss!

This figure is also missing from the Balance of Trade Figures internationally bad news for Manufacturers. 

Shale production will help maintain the output somewhat.  Shale drilling is not a new fancy deal.  Shale gas was first extracted in 1825 in NY.  High production began in the 1970s and really got going in the late 80s.  The addition of Nitric Acid in various strengths to the down hole mix is the only real change to the technology although mechanics has improved.

It was ramped up in Alberta  as part of the Make Work Program for the oil industry in the last downturn. 
This effort cost or will cost the Alberta Taxpayers over 6 billion dollars as the money came from Alberta Government Pension Funds.  AIMCo who looks after these funds reported an 8 billion dollar loss at a time when others in their industry were declaring a 3%  profit.  Coincidentally the numbers for the make work program and AIMco loss are the same. 

The Government continues to tell us this money came from a nebulous savings program.  While it is true there were excesses saved up in various departments that could be drawn upon these excesses were  about 100,000 to 250,000 dollars for some organizations; no where near the 8 billion spent! 

The Political Parties

The Conservatives are following the plan laid down by Ralph Klein.  They haven't deviated from it at all, regardless of who stands up as premier!   This is why their current tour asking public opinion about health care is worth nothing and will change nothing; it never has.

The Wild Rose Party was/is a small right wing group of extremists who caught the Oil Industry eye.  Harper supported them totally throwing his seasoned election types into the WRP as managers during the elections.

The Wild Rose have worked on their extreme positions  for years constantly deluding the people in the LDS church prevalent across southern Alberta.   Their cornerstone  is doing away with the Balance of payments program and they deliberately ignore Alberta's experience with the program.  Their argument is now and always has been "the oil belongs to the oil companies; left wing types are trying to take it away"

Alberta received equalization payments until  1947 and again from 1957 to 1965.  We got our share of the program when we needed it!  It is a Canadian solution so both Harper and the WRP want to end it.

The Wild Rose Party muddies the water by saying the equalization payments were not started until years later. That in itself is true but, this does not change the fact Alberta survived on payments from Ottawa for a great many years before they named it Equalization payments .

They also sight the Chase Manhattan Bank as being the great Canadian Savior by saving us from the evil eastern banks of the day.   One does not have to wonder about their origins!
Oil and Harper supported them on the net and in finances and  bannered them as the Ugly Sister of Conservative politics. It worked!   We now have a total circus of nutters for an official opposition.

The Alberta Party is still lurking in the background having no policy or platforms saying they will be whatever Albertans want them to be.  Always taking studies and never committing.  They too have the interest of the oil industry and will be left extremists  depending on what is needed to destabilize the vote in Alberta.  As in no time before us, it is imperative the Liberals and the NDP start working together!  A vote for the Alberta Party is beyond uniformed; it is dangerous!

Albertans are led to believe  a change in Government will  damage their employment  and careers.  Nothing could be further from the truth! 

With our additional 42 billions dollars in our economy the employment  would be better with far more choices and having a massive support for education and health care.

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