Tuesday, March 17, 2015

The real update on Canada's oil (bad) situation.

The embargo against Russia started it all! Behind this was Germany's Merkel; not one to be shy. Russia cut the world's best (lowest) deal with China who was the golden target for oil for the western world the world of optimism; gone!

Long term and cheap! China has 5 LNG producing plants in Indonesia. The low prices China received caused her to say they were not making sufficient money and put the lot up for sale!

The Chinese operators slashed prices on LNG. Putting the Saudi into It is this low-ball LNG contest working the Saudi Market.   That dictates what the Saudi will produce. It is a BTU fight; not an oil fight.

The world looked to Japan as a huge LNG market.  Japan was forced to pay 16.00 and 17,00 per mcf which North America bought for 3.00 for the same amount. 

And, then; a change of Government in Japan who immediately started up its 3 operational Nuclear plants but not without  first asking Obama if they could be included in the North American 3.00 gas.Obama said "NO!"

This same Japanese Government has said it will have 6 more nuclear plants operating within 2 years. And, there goes the get rich fast dreams of BC and Indonesia who were selling into Japan at 15.00 and 17.00.  Japan's economy has made major improvements since.

Obama has oil shale for a new toy and has Guaranteed his producers a minimum price per barrel regardless of where the world price goes.  There has been 11,600 miles of new pipeline built from the Bakken to mid America to hook onto Gulf pipelines while Keystone is stalled. I didn't know that was legal! 

Obama then, he reduced the Saudi access into the Gulf Refinery while inking a deal with Mexico to put their supply into the Gulf for the first time.  This put more pressure on the Saudi and the world.  It is US self interest that is propelling this disaster and "our" oil companies are for the most part US and China owned.

The shale has topped up the US national storage so there is no quick unloads for all those tankers that are being used as storage. (2008 seen the US empty them into their inventory that isn't there now!)

The largest available storage is Cushing IL. and it is almost full if not so already!



The prospects of a pipeline from Cushing to the Gulf coast get lower every day as shale pipelines increase  Through its new Shale pipeline network 11,600 miles of new pipe put down already with communities signing on to the land access with no problems.

Shale has a Achilles heel! It is high in condensate, the stuff Gasoline is made of and the stuff that determines if the finished product is P40 P50 or JetB. Lots left over to make Avgas so much so that Obama passed laws saying the US for the first time can export condensate.

The Achilles Heel is in the tank cars floating lots of condensate. When gasoline is made out of it a chromium additive is put in so that the sloshing of the gas will take its ever present static charge to the ground of the gas tank to bleed away harmlessly. No such additives are added to the tank cars because the chromium is harmful in other products down the line. It takes very little gasoline to contaminate a diesel storage tank!

When I was training Dangerous Goods handling in oil patch and industry I was asked to figure out why the trucks that haul from the crude lines to other refinery or tanks were catching fire on occasion. So, I looked at the operation. 

The truckers had tied a styrene Perfex jug to a styrene line to the bottom of their tank. On a one man operation, he could stand at the line valve and turn the vapour rich hot oil off when the plastic jug showed up at the lid (vent) at the top of the tank.

What was happening; the styrene has a high propensity for static electricity. The bottle would take on a very large charge from the oil. When it touched the upper rim of the tank it would discharge harmlessly if the contact was in a vapour rich environment.

However, if there was a wind blowing and their often is, there would be lean vapour area at the truck tank vent and when the bottle arched there, it would catch the truck on fire!
Think back to the rail cars this stuff is sloshing around and there is no antistatic additives. When they go over and splash there has to be some place in that catastrophe where the air mixture is right and, up it goes.

The only way condensate content could be controlled as Obama has said is for a small refinery to be at every well head. In short, its not going to happen! Those crude oil cars remain very dangerous if they go over and the oil industry is fully familiar with this.
No, this isn't about Saudi supply nor is it about Japan's refusal to be gouged any more. It is however about a complete collapse of the traditional oil markets.  It is about the US self interest and getting the infrastructure in place before Obama is out!   Wait until the pipelines start to blow!
There is no upside! And pipelines to the sea will help in about 10 years time. My bet is we will see 20 dollar oil pretty soon and it will be lasting.

The Gulf refinery strikes are causing the filling of storage even faster so the crap storm is heading our way, even faster


To digress just a bit!  Alberta Conservatives are tapping power line construction for billions of dollars to cover their cash shortage and its all coming from your pockets (again).
AESO announced a 20.00/month increase starting immediately to cover unnamed errors.  This is to be replaced with a 30.00 per month charge soon after.
There are 1.5 million meters in this province.
At 20.00 That is 3 million dollars per month income for Prentice and company or 36 million dollars a year and they don't say how many years this is going to run!

At 30.00 per month that is 4.5 million dollars per month or 54 million dollars a year fresh taxation onto Albertans.  Yet, the Conservatives say no to a progressive tax system as in effect in the rest of the country instead leaving it on the flat tax which middle class Albertans pay the bulk of the taxes.

We need a different kind of Government to get us through this crisis; we do not need more of the same which promises to go on for more than 6 years!  The Conservatives have been lying their through their teeth on the evils of socialism and you have been eating it up like kids to candy.

Norway since it broke away from Sweden has had a continuing Socialist Government!  They have hundreds of billions of dollars in the banks off shore.  Off shore so as not to mess with the local economies.  Every Norwegian is guaranteed a university education free if they want it.   Their medical facilities are among the most advanced in Europe!  There is no shortage of professionals to staff the health care!  There is no shortage of beds!.

The Conservatives have robbed our Heritage fund of more than 700 billion dollars.  They have run a 30% discount on our oil for over 10 years.  This amounts to trillions lost to the province and producers.

I am going to continue to support the NDP, the only party that has shown any degree of sanity.
If you don't vote; nothing will change and you will hate the outcome.




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